Thursday, June 30, 2016
Brexit and Trump
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Recession Coming?
Are we headed for another recession? Articles have started emerging more frequently now that say a recession is around the corner, and almost there. It's weird coz I have been feeling that we're still recovering from the last one, and now I hear the next one is near by. I read a technical analysis (predictions based on historical trends) just now that said UK has had a 7-year bull run, i.e., since 2009 - one this long happened only twice in the past: before the great depression in 1929, and before the dotcom bubble burst in 2000. It surprises me, firstly, to know that there's a bull-run somewhere since 2009. And secondly, to know 7 years bull-run is that significantly long and rare. There are other similar indicators all over the world, related to commodity prices, China slowdown and market crashes, fucked up emerging markets, shale oil and oil prices, Greece default, and so on. And something tells me it's going to get real bad very soon.
I have been really unlucky with the timings of these recessions. I was studying civil engineering during the recession that followed the dotcom shit and I was studying management during the recession following the subprime shit. I remember nothing of the shit I studied in either, but towards the end of both I was in the phases of global economic recovery and I was also looking for jobs. On both the occasions placements were screwed up, although not as bad as the previous years'. Me and my batchmates did get jobs, although not very high paying. And subsequent years on both occasions had unprecedented placements and rubbed salt on our wounds, as our batch placements did to those of our seniors.
Anyway, can't do much now to make up for the poor timing. Don't want to go back to school, as every time I did so in the past, I triggered a recession and came out in not the best of times. But on the flip side, being in college during recession is the best situation to be in when people in jobs are getting fired. And I was blessed in that aspect, twice. But if the next recession is almost there, am not going anywhere this time, no chance it can happen right now. So let's face it and see if I get fired! By the way, there is always a possibility I might get fired even if there is no recession. But that's not the topic we're discussing. And on this, I refuse to digress :P.
Wish I worked in the Indian Railways like everyone in my father's generation did in my family. Recessions and economies were not their headache. Economic cycles are a gift of capitalism to the world. And a very expensive gift indeed - all expenses paid by the poor and middle-class to the rich. And something makes the world a more beautiful place, as a result. Wish something made it more equal, instead.
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