Information Asymmetry

Underlying most conflicts in this world in Information Asymmetry. And Ekta Kapoor has built an empire on top of that. Look at any of those Saas Bahu serials on Indian TV. In every scene you have someone knowing something the other doesn't, and vice versa. And that creates all the chaos these serials are about. And there is so much importance given by characters in the stories to protecting information that they possess, that it surprises me they are finally characters depicting ordinary people, not those from some secret intelligence service set out to protect good from evil or evil from good. And the information there is after all only of someone cooking something - not food - even food at times. Sometimes the crazy unrealisticity, which is not even a word, gets on your nerves. But a lot of people are bearing it, as they don't think they have other options. They're clearly lazy.

Speaking of lazy, I find it amazing that a lazy body can still have a very active and hard-working mind. It's a personal experience! Whenever the mind-tapping thing becomes a reality, and stuff of The Matrix and Avatar and all that shit becomes contemporary, lazy people will be in better positions to rule the world - but only the virtual one - if they can only dream of physical action. Extending that thought, if right now this world we live in is all virtual by any chance, then the guy who is dreaming me is dreaming me all wrong. How can I control my controller so he controls me better?

This reminds me of economists and their lazy ways.

And also coming back to Information Asymmetry, let me cite another example where it clearly screws up the world, and is yet not acknowledged in the true sense - Markets - stock market, bhindi market, commodity market, marriage market, fish market or the market of opportunities. Nobody has all the information, and yet the ideal models of our economists base themselves on all information being public and driving people's behavior and response. What's the point of an ideal model that is more than 90% away from reality? There is definitely a lot of insider trading, sentiment driven activities, manipulations and all the bla which can tilt the market access and control with respect to different sections and categories of people. All markets are imperfect to serious degrees and yet our economists don't think beyond their ideal models, coz that's all the mathematics they can do - laziness again - in fact trying to understand true economics through mathematics is laziness of highest degree in my view. What do economists control anyhow. The information asymmetry is created, managed and very smartly controlled by whoever can to draw the best returns, while the rest of the people just crib and go away.

I have begun to realize that Information Asymmetry is the biggest source of all power in this world. And if you look around you'll find that consciously or sub-consciously or unconsciously everyone is looking for information which others may not have. Look at work-places. What is office-politics? Taking pride and drawing maximum benefits from knowing information that matters. And one has to be smart in gathering it, coz the source has his/her interests too, and the truth or untruth of the information is always questionable. Timing of gaining possession of the right information - true or untrue - is very important, of course. If you are too late, you'll only be worthy of participating in a chaai pe charcha which is an information sharing/gathering exercise with limited scope of high-outcome-info.

With so many channels of information dissemination and gathering - formal and informal - information overload is a real issue. Diving into tonnes of dark shit and coming out quickly with a glittering diamond is an art which very few are masters of. And managing the precious diamonds - gathered or manufactured oneself - is also a dimension of that art which is inevitable for success.

Freedom to choose one's faith

This post is not going to be long as I've sat through half of my Bangalore-Pune flight doing nothing. Writing is such a boring activity at times and  it's impossible to feel motivated to do it. Thinking happens on its own, but expressing it is a lot of work, and not so exciting at times. Anyway, now that I've started it, let's see where this goes.

I was part of an interesting discussion today with two of my colleagues. One was an American devout Catholic. The other was an Indian devout Hindu. And I was an agnostic mostly non-practicing someone. The American colleague is a much older man with kids and grandkids. And the Indian guy is my age and has a kid. And my kids are not born yet.

The topic of discussion was freedom of religion - whether our kids have it. And I found people had quite interesting views, some of them surprised me quite a bit. That someone our generation thinks that kids have no right to choose their faith, particularly one that's different from his/her parents', and that someone at an age like 17 is not wise enough to make a choice of religious faith surprised me. It also surprised me, though not as much, that it was deeply hurting for an American person to see his kids choose a different faith than his. But then, over the years, he has come to terms with it, and has realized that one has a right to choose his/her religion, and any religion is good as long as it teaches the right values of life.

The argument of the Indian guy, my generation, was two fold - one, that kids have no right to cause pain to their parents by their actions like these; and two, that kids of 17 years and even (older) grown ups are not qualified enough to make choices of faith. They must basically follow what their parents tell them, and not use their minds and make other choices coz what those minds tell them is nonsense.

I agree one mustn't hurt anyone, more so the parents, but if the parents are not thinking right and are hurting themselves for wrong reasons, should the kid pay the price for it by continuing to live a fake life that's not his true self? Of course not. Fixing it once might fix it for all future generations, and would be a great service to a lot of people born and unborn.

And on not being capable of making the right choices... It's the right to choose that makes life more meaningful, rather than choosing right, which nobody knows for sure anyway. And remember, the kid also has only one life which he/she wants to live happily. He should not be denied his right to experiment and search for truth, meaning and realities of the world by making him feel guilty about it.

Reservations

Large numbers of people in India participate in movements to get themselves, their castes, tagged as backward in ways that can get them preferential and promotional treatment in government run educational institutions and government jobs. There are in fact so many people claiming that a percentage be reserved for them in jobs and seats in colleges, that I find it funny that all percentages - reserved and unreserved - have to add up to a cent and probably none of them realizes that cent is a pie of fixed size. Thanks to whoever fixed the max limit at 50% for all reservations, we at least have a cap on the reserved part. It can surely be amended, but for now, we have some bounds for positive discrimination, although positive to someone would be negative to someone else.

Fundamentally, the intention of reservation is to bring about equality in class to people of all the castes, although in a very twisted way. It assumes all people of the backward castes are hindered in their ability to grow, because of resources and opportunities not being accessible to them; and the reservation system provides them with easy rides, combination of both resources and opportunities. And if someone belonging to one of those castes is not really hindered, it's simply his/her good luck. And implicit in all this is also an assumption that all people of the so called non-backward castes have ample resources and opportunities to achieve what they want, and if anybody doesn't, it's his/her bad-luck. And with 60+ years of reservation already gone, there's a further assumption that things haven't improved any bit with anyone in any of the backward castes, and in fact may have worsened considerably, which calls for more reservation. And over these 60+ years, it's been found that many more castes qualify to be considered backward - some had to fight to prove it - and therefore deserve to be awarded with some reservation. Such castes are the few which have managed to cross the line separating the haves from the have-nots.

All these may be partial truths and logical ways of looking at things, but the funny part is, everyone knows it's none of it which is really driving things. It's something else... the screwed-up political system of India, the way our leaders think, the incentives that drive our peoples - which is really shameful, and the sadly manipulative democracy that we consider ourselves, which ironically the common man is incapable of changing much for good. A model where claiming backwardness is incentivised forever can only degrade a culture and screw up the self-esteem of its people. But we should not complain, coz our forefathers were another bunch of mental cases, who practiced the equivalent of slavery in India for centuries, and someone has to pay the price for it now. And to make matters worse, there are millions of mental-cases even now who are carrying forward the legacy of those forefathers with depraved minds.

The worst downside of this positive discrimination called reservation and all the allied set of benefits that come with it, is that the youth of this country, most of them, who don't otherwise believe in caste-bullshit, get frustrated at losing out in the race to someone less deserving - even if one accounts for access to resources and opportunity - and then the whole system seems unfair, yet incapable of change. And this somehow leads to stronger feelings of casteism - rooted in hatred resulting from frustration - it's difficult to expect someone so frustrated to not have such thoughts and feelings. Especially when the whole system that wronged them is visibly driven to a large extent by opportunism rather than any real concern for the backward and downtrodden. And whatever were the intentions of introducing the whole reservation system, we've ended up promoting the very problem it tried to solve.

Everyone in India knows these things. Then what's the point of writing it down again?

And I don't see a point in trying to suggest solutions either - coz firstly it's nothing nobody has ever thought of - and secondly, for any social challenge, when the political solution and the real issue are not aligned and yet the political class is the beneficiary of the prevalent solution, what's the incentive for the political leaders to enforce or try to put forth an alternative solution less beneficial to them in the short run? And who really thinks long-term these days? Indian political class of today has mostly built its career on issues like caste and religious differences, not on growth and development. For such politicians to think differently would mean playing against their strengths.

Possibly reservation, over the years, has been designed to preserve the caste & religion based divides in our societies, so that our political class, which draws its power from such divisions can continue to thrive. Therefore for reservation itself to end, this political philosophy has to end... But our leaders come from among us. Before we talk about cleansing of our political class, we have to therefore talk about cleansing of our social mindset, which allows these politicians to draw their incentives by playing on divisions like caste and religion. The most challenging part of this transformation is to bring the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the reservation system on a common and equal platform - no appeasement, no demeaning - and design a new social fabric for this country. It does need a strong and charismatic leader who can bind all together with a common message. Who is also capable of thinking long-term, even way beyond his/her lifetime. (S)he may be killed before (s)he succeeds. And another leader has to emerge. And (s)he will. I hope its not an endless pursuit. I hope it begins for real. And ends too. I hope human minds are really capable of achieving happiness and equality for all, and together.

Swachh Bharat

"If Modi can clean Banaras, he can clean India", says my wife. Can't be more true, I felt. I hear Modi is pushing hard the Swachh Bharat campaign all over India. And Benaras happens to be his constituency. And Banaras is very dirty. Combining all three facts, Banaras would be an ideal place for him (or let's say 'his government', although nobody generally says so) to set an example for the campaign. Probably too ideal and challenging. It's been more than a year now since he took office. But I saw not much of a trace of Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan in Banaras during my visit past 2 days. The ghaat where Modi turned a sweeper for the cameras - assi ghaat - is also dirty, although a bit less I guess than others. But I need to see a before-after analysis of that place to know whether anything has changed there. May be it was just a more convenient place to launch a political campaign, being in a slightly less crowded area of the holy city and one of the less popular spots among visitors. And the state government has every incentive to make sure the campaign fails so that Modi fails. Dirty politics of cleanliness!

As I went around the city, I could see heaps and heaps of garbage, comprising all kinds of things, in every little distance. Somebody has to pick them up, the municipal corporation is not doing it in time for sure. But these heaps are such dirty rotten smelly ugly spots, we in India should rethink this whole mechanism of collecting and disposing garbage in cities. I've seen this in all major cities in India - people or agents collect garbage from various places and dump it in heaps at specific points in the city, generally roadsides. It lies there, rotting and stinking for as long as it takes, i.e., until the municipality truck comes to pick it up. Such open dumps, although temporary are both unhygienic and ugly. And the stuff tends to get scattered over a larger area than intended, as people further throw stuff there, carelessly without aiming it right. The mix of biodegradable and non-biodegradable junk makes it complex. And the former leads to stench in no time. Then cows and buffaloes flock there and try their luck to find out if there's anything edible for them, and create a further mess as they poke into the heap. And they can't be blamed if they also lay around some shit in the process. Dogs and crows also come by to explore any non-veg options they might hit upon. And flies, mosquitoes and lot of other insects have fun too. And go micro, and there are organisms always at work. All that nature happening in the open is not something to be proud of. But it seems culturally we don't really care, coz individually a lot of Indians, may be a majority of us, don't really mind throwing stuff around and moving on, a few do with some guilt, a few ensure no one's watching. It's not about people of certain class alone. The rich are as careless as the poor. The educated are as pathetic in this aspect as the not-so-learned simpletons.

May be an initiative like Swachh Bharat can pull the right triggers to bring a change in mindsets. It's not happened effectively so far. May be a lot is left on the culturally screwed people i.e., us, to realize and change and start doing things differently. But the problem here is, although one can possibly see the incentive in collectively behaving differently, one wouldn't do it unless he/she sees a few others around also doing it, and a sense of collective action developing, albeit gradually. However the few who don't show any inclination to change can really disturb the will of others to keep going if the defaulters are considerably powerful people in their social standing. And in India, the powerful are particularly more arrogant and stubborn in being compliant. And many of them are filthy and careless outside their homes, both in thought and actions. I am sure the leaders who are designing movements like Swachh Bharat are themselves gobbling crores of rupees sanctioned for it. If municipalities do their job, we don't even need such movements. If people really cared, rather cared enough, India would have been Swachh anyway. So it seems to me, that we don't care enough. Cleanliness of our public places is probably not a very high priority for us. And that's why we don't care much while spitting on roads and walls, throwing that platic bottle or tin can or plastic bag out of the car window, throwing stuff here and there and not caring to look for dustbins, etc. Anything said about the need for change will not be effective as this carelessness about cleanliness is deep rooted in our culture of today. We need cultural change. It's not on Modi or his government or a few people to do it. It needs some basic values to change. How can we bring a cultural change of this kind?

Recession Coming?

Are we headed for another recession? Articles have started emerging more frequently now that say a recession is around the corner, and almost there. It's weird coz I have been feeling that we're still recovering from the last one, and now I hear the next one is near by. I read a technical analysis (predictions based on historical trends) just now that said UK has had a 7-year bull run, i.e., since 2009 - one this long happened only twice in the past: before the great depression in 1929, and before the dotcom bubble burst in 2000. It surprises me, firstly, to know that there's a bull-run somewhere since 2009. And secondly, to know 7 years bull-run is that significantly long and rare. There are other similar indicators all over the world, related to commodity prices, China slowdown and market crashes, fucked up emerging markets, shale oil and oil prices, Greece default, and so on. And something tells me it's going to get real bad very soon.

I have been really unlucky with the timings of these recessions. I was studying civil engineering during the recession that followed the dotcom shit and I was studying management during the recession following the subprime shit. I remember nothing of the shit I studied in either, but towards the end of both I was in the phases of global economic recovery and I was also looking for jobs. On both the occasions placements were screwed up, although not as bad as the previous years'. Me and my batchmates did get jobs, although not very high paying. And subsequent years on both occasions had unprecedented placements and rubbed salt on our wounds, as our batch placements did to those of our seniors.

Anyway, can't do much now to make up for the poor timing. Don't want to go back to school, as every time I did so in the past, I triggered a recession and came out in not the best of times. But on the flip side, being in college during recession is the best situation to be in when people in jobs are getting fired. And I was blessed in that aspect, twice. But if the next recession is almost there, am not going anywhere this time, no chance it can happen right now. So let's face it and see if I get fired! By the way, there is always a possibility I might get fired even if there is no recession. But that's not the topic we're discussing. And on this, I refuse to digress :P.

Wish I worked in the Indian Railways like everyone in my father's generation did in my family. Recessions and economies were not their headache. Economic cycles are a gift of capitalism to the world. And a very expensive gift indeed - all expenses paid by the poor and middle-class to the rich. And something makes the world a more beautiful place, as a result. Wish something made it more equal, instead.

SochVichaar on SochVichaar

My posts are generally chains of thought leading to each other without much of post hoc rationalization. In fact, on many topics blogging has helped me develop thought processes and reach my own conclusions as I wrote about them. Thanks to my friends who encouraged me to blog, I've had this beautiful journey of 10 years, albeit with many large gaps in between. I sometimes look back and wish I had written more. More often, I look at now and wish I wrote more. But then, thoughts and ideas evolve at their own natural pace, and until they are mature enough, they don't do anyone any good.

Yet, this blog is not meant for expressing my damn opinion about every damn thing. After all, the world doesn't really give a damn. Thoughts expressed in this blog should be of some value to the readers. Although it may not always achieve that intended effect, but I try my best. In this age of posts which have character limits, blogs with predominantly textual content are a load difficult to bear for net-surfers. To be honest, even I don't generally read articles as lengthy as the ones I myself write, unless I find them very very very interesting after reading the first few lines! But I strongly feel real value can't be delivered under character length limits like 140 characters. Such limits can work only for breaking news which say something unsettling without revealing much detail and keep the reader shaken for some time. Or for celebrities whose each word matters, no matter what they say.

I sometimes wonder about the future of this blog and its content. This blog has changed locations thrice in its career. It was first hosted on o3.indiatimes.com in 2006. But indiatimes gave up on that site, I don't know why, and as it was getting increasingly difficult to post stuff on it, some time in summer of 2007, I moved the whole content - post by post - to livejournal.com. I literally copied each article and pasted into livejournal editor, and also set the date of the article to its original posting date - livejournal allowed setting dates for posts. That's why you see some of my oldest posts on blogger - the current host of my blog, still dated as per their original dates. The movement to blogger from livejournal was done using a tool that did some XML based import from livejournal and export of the XML to blogger. And the great thing about that tool was that it was capable of copying everything - content, title, date, comments - and create a copy on blogger. I had to move to blogger around 2011 coz the Russian guys who ran livejournal decided to shut it down and sent me a date by when I had to move... So I had to move. And I mapped this blog to sochvichaar.com domain name, which I bought for the first time in December 2012 after having an eye on its availability for a long time and finally convincing myself that I wasn't wasting any money buying it. My blog was always called SochVichaar, whatever be the parent hosting location. And having a URL itself called sochvichaar.com for my blog feels awesome, and gives a unique and exclusive identity to my blog.

I could never make any money from this blog... People don't click the damn ads, although I do have a good number of visitors now. So, ladies and gentlemen, please click these ads hanging around and make me some money. I am at $15 right now, earned over 5 years... And need to reach $100 mark to get paid by Google (should I call it ALPHABET now?)!

An update - 20th Aug 2015:

Here's a video - it's my interview taken by Pankaj Mishra when we were at IIML. He did it for an assignment for some course. But like anything else he does, he conducted this interview with a lot of seriousness, which I didn't expect when we started. Although it doesn't show up much, I also got a bit nervous as the conversation was getting recorded with the camera only on me. I think it was Sankalp Mittal who was holding the camera, and he did a good job. It's interesting to hear my views 6 years back. We don't change much, do we?

Global Warming - why are not many worried?

Global warming, as per a report by a guy named Hansen, is taking a dangerous shape at a rapid pace now. Due to warming waters, the animals in the oceans are migrating under water to find better habitats, many are dying. And many species on land are already on the verge of extinction. We may end up having a mass extinction phase soon, and it may have already begun. The future of life on earth would be totally different, and who knows, we humans may be gone too in this large scale wipe-out.

Should I be worried about it? Why should it matter to me as an individual that 100 years later, the species that I belong to may no longer be found on this planet? Or anywhere? As long as my lifetime is not at any big risk, should I be worried? But how to ensure that it is indeed safe until I'm alive? What if it is not? What if the probability of something conclusive happening next year is not 0? What if something pathbreaking happens in research and we find ways to keep ourselves  alive for longer periods and escape natural death - and then be stuck with an earth that we screwed up thinking we'd die before it gets too bad? And what about my family? I don't want them, at least 1-2 generations after mine, to suffer after I die. The generations beyond are too far to worry about.

I think the risk that something might happen in the period of our concern - that's what makes us want to play safer than we'd otherwise do. But since this risk is not really proven and established, it's not that big a worry for most common people. Coz human behavior, as it seems to me right now, is not designed to make one really act on risks that won't materialize in his/her lifetime. Global warming is still a topic of scientific curiosity, and political and business interests. And for common people, it is entertainment and gossip, although while talking about it, they pretend to be seriously worried about something, which they themselves are not sure of. Until someone proves that global warming will kill us soon, adoption of counter measures, like moving away from oil, will still be driven by factors like convenience and style for the rich, affordability for the middle class, commercial viability for the businessmen, entertainment for passionate scientists, career for other scientists, and 'WTF?' for the poor.

This aspect of natural human behavior is understandable, given the kind of selfish instincts built into us by design to secure our individual existence and the all pervading fear of death. I don't know how those jihadis' minds are manipulated to want to die happlily for an outcome that they'll never see. Possibly it needs one to have a strong belief in life after death or reincarnation, and then some random chain of reasoning to guarantee incomparable luxury in that other life somehow linked to the cause they're dying for.

No wonder ban of pornographic movies, corruption, traffic, prices, jobs - these are more important for common people, than issues like global warming. But that is expected and justified coz to ensure a better future and design policies accordingly is the job of the leaders, theoretically. And in democracies, which most countries are today, common people 'elect' the right leaders to do this job by evaluating their relevant capabilities thoroughly, theoretically. Even in countries with other forms of governments, leaders are expected to have that kind of capabilities and wisdom, theoretically. But in reality, leaders are also human (and animal) and are driven by greed and selfish motives. And they are intelligent. If all were to die, the rich and powerful would die last. Well, I know there'll be exceptions, but let's talk majority.

So common people can only benefit from long term transformations pushed by people who are thinking right, and are also able to establish a reasonably strong and near term material benefit of working towards change - a business model - which in the current scenario won't emerge until there is mass adoption of the idea, which means the rich and middle class have to pick it up for whatever reasons. And as noted earlier, the factors driving them would be convenience and style for the rich and affordability for the middle class. Coz the former would help create the brand and social acceptability, while the latter would make it viable and help generate the desired impact.

Do post your views on it.